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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers improving together. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still